Are we about to hit rock bottom in the USA?

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redfishsc

redfishsc

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Normally I don't ruminate over doom-n-gloom and I'm not a doomsday prophet by any stretch, but things aren't looking good.

With gas prices approaching the boiling point, diesel has already topped one-arm and one-leg per gallon. Shipping costs are bubbling higher, food costs are as well.

We just go a notice that rent is about to go up $20 a month (on our budget that means several fewer cans-o-beans in the pantry).


But those aren't really huge issues. What is huge is that our airlines tend to be swaggering (fuel and safety costs), what is left of our auto industry is fizzling out (or moving to a third-world country:(), Korea is producing better cars than we are, and nobody in Detroit has figured out that Americans are sick of unreliable scrap heaps and instead they continue making cars with goofy, flashy widgets that break after the warranty runs out. I can't sleep at night because of the sound of my Chevy car sitting in the parking lot rusting all night.



Our creditors are, and have been, loaning gobs of money to people that I personally wouldn't loan my ONE cigarette lighter to (and I don't smoke), foreclosures on property is at a nutty level, partly due to predatory loans. Not unlike what sparked the Great Depression in some ways. Think of how many tales you've heard of Ma and Pa fighting with the banker over selling enough crops to pay the mortgage. Those aren't necessarily folk tales. That really happened.


And if that weren't enough, Conan Obrien is supposed to take over for Leno in 2009[V].

Dear heavens what is our world coming to? Conan Obrien and gas at $5 a gallon? I'm moving to...no, wait, OPEC rules that nation too....
 
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I am afraid the worst is yet to come. With all these debt we are accumulating...it will take years (if not decades) to reverse the damage economy wise. Watch the crime rate rise too as the economy plummet. :(

I really hope I am mistaken...
 
I wouldn't worry too much, I can remember the gas lines in the 70's thinking the world was coming to an end and that we would be at the mercy of foriegn oil dictators. I remember watching the Watergate proceedings as the stock market was going topsy tervy with every hearing. After 911 I can vividly remember loosing a good portion of my portfolio and thinking so much for an early retirement, now I'll have to work 'till I'm 80!

Seems that every few years there is something! I think what makes it appear worse now is that we are bombarded with news 24/7 from our I-pods, cell phone text messages, and cable news networks, all competing to see who can draw the largest audiences by having the most dramatic stories!

I think life will go on. I retired two years ago and am in better financial shape now than then but then again I don't feel the need to buy an $800,000 home or drive a Hummer to impress my friends......... just snazzy pen blanks! :D

But about Conan Obrien..... now that IS depressing! [xx(]
 
It's even worse than that. Not only is Conan OBrien replacing Jay Leno, Jimmy Fallon (SNL fame) has been announced as the replacement for Conan Obrien.

Jason
 
Oh yes,you fogot one thing though,interest rates were hovering around 18 per cent,and there were about 400 people being held hostage,yep times changed huh.. Carl
 
Oh my goodness! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Or did it already fall in 1973-75 when OPEC quadrupled</u> oil prices and the U.S. went through 2 years of stagflation?

Or did it already fall in 1980-82 when the energy crisis of 1979 was followed by Iran's reduction in oil production (after the Ayatollah overthrew the Shah) and the Fed decided to tighten the money supply to control inflation?

Or did it already fall in 1990 and 1991 when U.S. industrial production declined, as did manufacturing-trade. (Does anyone remember a Presidential campaign slogan "It's the economy, stupid."?)

Or did it already fall in 2001-03 when the dot-com bubble burst, the 9-11 terrorist attacks occurred and massive accounting scandals reverberated through Wall Street (Enron, Tyco, WorldComm, etc.)?

Yes, the U.S. economy is a bit battered, but this is not the first time nor will it be the last. It is also nowhere near the worst.

Unemployment is at 5.1%. Inflation stands at 4% and only 2.4% if you exclude food and energy. Average hourly earnings (production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls) stands at $17.86. (All info from the Department of Labor)

Less than 1% of the world's population has a better "average" standard of living.
 
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for capitalism, but run-away corporate greed is the rule at the moment. And as long as the big money machines keep making money, they don't care who they hurt. Or what other American Corporations (what few are left). And like Dario, I fear we haven't seen the worst yet. Just my gut feeling.

Oh, and I didn't worry about the gas crunch in the 1970's. I grew up in the oil field and knew it was a lie so that the oil companies could capitalize on the double digit inflation we had back then. Everyone got a bigger cut at it than they did back then so they parked the tankers at sea and told everyone they were out of oil at the refineries. As soon as they got their way and the prices jumped substantially, the tankers miraculously appeared. Go figure. Today's strategy is different. It isn't just the oil companies. It's also largely the future's market driving the price hikes. So who looses? Everyone! Except big money, that is. And they don't give a (expletive deleted).:(
 
Ya Lou, there's been hard times, but this one is lookin bad. Never seen the housing market this bad. We have major financial institutions going belly up. We have three auto manufactures heading for disaster, one is cutting an entire shift. We have fuel as high as it's ever been and is still climbing. We filled up the Jeep this weekend and it cost $62.00 and my little Ranger cost $50.00, and it had a quarter tank. More people than ever before are cashing out their retirement to survive. I could continue, but the way I'm seeing it, it's getting worse, much worse. We have definitely not seen the end of this. It' is also going to to lead to wide spread deception and further corruption, theft in the work place, theft in any place, people doing whatever they have to to survive. We have already moved in family, all the help we can get. May have to move in more. The oldest and his family has settled with his mom. The wifes mom has moved the youngest son and his family on property. It is becoming a multiple family existence. Can hardly survive alone any more. Not to mention, no job is secure any more. I work for the city and they are "eliminating" possissions. Not even lay offs, eliminating possissions. Ya it's not over, and those who think it is or is getting close, hang on to your hats.
 
My hope is not in the economy,
My hope is not is who is in the White House,
My hope is not in Wall Street,
My hope lies in Christ... with Him all things are possible.
 
I was born in Zimbabwe. I went to University in South Africa. I traveled in England, Scotland and Spain. I've also been to Venezuela a number of times. I have lived in the states for about ten years now and have been a proud US citizen for just over two years.

I feel the average US citizen has no idea how good they have it. I am not suggesting that we live in a utopia. There are problems here and there are disturbing trends. The economy has slowed down, I work in the construction field so I know this first hand! In general though Americans have a great standard of living.

I believe in the US economy and the resilience, adaptability and entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. America has survived and prospered through many storms in the short history of this nation. She will survive and prosper through this one.

I would challenge anyone to go to the following site, http://www.globalrichlist.com/index.php and get a true perspective of where you stand in the wealth of the world. It is very sobering.

I, for one, count my blessing to be able to live in the USA.
 
Originally posted by DCBluesman

Oh my goodness! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Or did it already fall in 1973-75 when OPEC quadrupled</u> oil prices and the U.S. went through 2 years of stagflation?

Or did it already fall in 1980-82 when the energy crisis of 1979 was followed by Iran's reduction in oil production (after the Ayatollah overthrew the Shah) and the Fed decided to tighten the money supply to control inflation?

Or did it already fall in 1990 and 1991 when U.S. industrial production declined, as did manufacturing-trade. (Does anyone remember a Presidential campaign slogan "It's the economy, stupid."?)

Or did it already fall in 2001-03 when the dot-com bubble burst, the 9-11 terrorist attacks occurred and massive accounting scandals reverberated through Wall Street (Enron, Tyco, WorldComm, etc.)?

Yes, the U.S. economy is a bit battered, but this is not the first time nor will it be the last. It is also nowhere near the worst.

Unemployment is at 5.1%. Inflation stands at 4% and only 2.4% if you exclude food and energy. Average hourly earnings (production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls) stands at $17.86. (All info from the Department of Labor)

Less than 1% of the world's population has a better "average" standard of living.
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You failed to notice the Tonight Show tragedy. We can't sit idly by and let that horrendous crime go unnoticed[B)]
 
America is like a drunk, it has to hit bottom before it wakes up and does anything about it. When we bottom out some changes will be made, until then it's Democrats and Republicans duking it out and NOTHING gets done!:(:(:(
 
What happened to the days of the gentleman politician.. He made his living at home, but went to Washington as congressman or senator, did what he could for the country, then went home to his business... not drawing an un-Godly salary from the taxpayers, then every so often voting himself raise.

Gas prices are a problem because they are volatile... if and when they stabilize, no matter what the level, we'll learn to live with them.

On the mortgage crisis... why do all the lenders just write off the loans and cry "foul", when they could work with the borrowers and at least work out arrangements for them to repay the principle and get their money back on loans that should not have been made in the first place.

My wife and I retired on just our government stipend about 2 1/2 years ago.. other than some problems with medical, we are doing as well as when we both worked... actually have fewer health problems now that we are out of the stress and tension of working and commuting. We made sure we were nearly debt free and bought a very very modest little house to retire to... which we had in place 3 years before we retired. We sold our house in Houston and put all the proceeds into setting up for our retirement... we're doing very well and when I do a show and make a little extra, we put that towards any expenses and house repairs needed.

It's a difficult time, but as is said many ways, "This too shall pass"
 
Originally posted by ozmandus



My wife and I retired on just our government stipend about 2 1/2 years ago.. other than some problems with medical, we are doing as well as when we both worked... actually have fewer health problems now that we are out of the stress and tension of working and commuting. We made sure we were nearly debt free and bought a very very modest little house to retire to... which we had in place 3 years before we retired. We sold our house in Houston and put all the proceeds into setting up for our retirement... we're doing very well and when I do a show and make a little extra, we put that towards any expenses and house repairs needed.

It's a difficult time, but as is said many ways, "This too shall pass"
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Chuck, there is LOT of wisdom in what you just said. Now, I am 30 years old. I have noticed the my peers, including myself 5 years ago, to be totally clueless to what you just said.

Now I am learning to live on less and run the car on "fumes" per se. And honestly I'm in better health now that I have been in a LONG time. Seems that giving up my seat at the chinese buffet beside John Pinet was good for me (you heeer fou houwa! you go now!).
 
all things pass. in other words you felt good yesterday and now you don't well that will pass also. there will always be ups and downs. overall though I do believe that with wealth and prosperity comes complacency. and we will not stay leaders of the world from armchairs. Agriculture used to be a staple industry in our country and that has passed. the same will and is happening with industry. the new age is information. U.S. citizens consume on a scale that most of the rest of the world cannot even fathom. We cannot even keep up with our own demand for "Stuff". so the rest of the world has stepped in to do it. in many cases we actually went there to help them be capable of doing so. 20 years from now we may all be traveling around on Japanese airlines. All things pass. and so will our time as the leaders of the world
 
I think most economist would agree that the housing situation is a major reason for the current slump we are in not the price of oil or gas and it’s not always corporate greed that causes our problems, often we are our own worst enemies!

We were having a BBQ with friends a few weeks back that live in a neighborhood of homes costing $400,000 and up. We noticed a few houses down a young couple carrying things out to a U-haul truck themselves all afternoon and my friend said… “Poor kids, they’re loosing their houseâ€

Seems like the “poor kidsâ€, both in their mid twenties, had gotten in over their heads with a mortgage they couldn’t afford along with their college loans and two new cars, did a loan that ballooned on them then couldn’t afford the payments. The house wasn’t worth what they owed on it so instead of sticking it out, they chose the easy way out and just walked away from the house, literally, and left the keys for the bank!

I’m not saying it was all their fault and that there weren’t a few greedy loan officers along the way but they knew they were in way over their heads but like many, many others, they were trying to make their fortune in real estate and the bubble broke on them.

No, we have a few more to blame for this mess than corporate glutens and oil companies! Seems that people have lost their patience these days and want everything NOW, even those who can’t afford it and we all pay the price for their blunders.

But on a serious note; I couldn't sleep for thinking about Conan Obrian taking over the tONIGHT SHOW! :D
 
NOT THE PRICE OF OIL OR GAS? Trucks move everything in this country and the price they pay for fuel is DIRECTLY tied to how much things cost. I think most economists WOULD agree with that.
 
Originally posted by Daniel

all things pass. in other words you felt good yesterday and now you don't well that will pass also. there will always be ups and downs. overall though I do believe that with wealth and prosperity comes complacency. and we will not stay leaders of the world from armchairs. Agriculture used to be a staple industry in our country and that has passed. the same will and is happening with industry. the new age is information. U.S. citizens consume on a scale that most of the rest of the world cannot even fathom. We cannot even keep up with our own demand for "Stuff". so the rest of the world has stepped in to do it. in many cases we actually went there to help them be capable of doing so. 20 years from now we may all be traveling around on Japanese airlines. All things pass. and so will our time as the leaders of the world
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Well said and I sadly agree.

I am an American and very proud of it...but...for those who still believe that we are "the" military super power of the world, think again and look hard at China (scary).
 
Similar situation in most of the world, but the wheel of world economics turns, sometimes just slower than we would like. In South Africa: inflation at 10.2%, lending rates around 15%, unemployment 25%-30% and to put 80ltrs of diesel into my car I need to make a short term loan...ZAR850,00. Even when the SA economy is booming, I can still only get one type of pen kit in SA, a PSI 24kt.

As we South Africans would say "Eish"!

Mike
 
Originally posted by rherrell

NOT THE PRICE OF OIL OR GAS? Trucks move everything in this country and the price they pay for fuel is DIRECTLY tied to how much things cost. I think most economists WOULD agree with that.
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Rick, I didn't say the price of oil and gas wasn't a problem. How much things cost and the poor economic shape we are in I believe are two separate issues. I just don't believe it's the CAUSE of the economic mess we are in right now.

People walking away from homes they choose not to keep paying for because their “investment†turned sour and lenders claiming horrendous losses on bad home loans wanting to be bailed out by the government for their bad choices caused by their own greed is what is causing a lot of trickle down problems.

Empty houses in record numbers all across the country, did we over build, over sell, over extend, over invest, probably a little of each. Are the mortgage holders wanting to sell their homes for realistic prices… no, they would rather be bailed out by the government for their losses with your tax dollars. Until this stalemate ends, we will not move out of this mess.

But this is just my opinion!
 
Originally posted by Grizz

My hope is not in the economy,
My hope is not is who is in the White House,
My hope is not in Wall Street,
My hope lies in Christ... with Him all things are possible.
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Amen.

And my God will meet all your needs according to his glorious riches in Christ Jesus. Phil 4:19
 
Originally posted by DocStram

Originally posted by rherrell

Doc, I thought you might have said it was when the North won.:D Or is that just a myth?;)
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Naw ... Rick. I consider myself a Southerner. Remember, I'm in The South by choice! You were only born here. ;):D:D
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Me too, Doc! I was born and spent the first 38 years of my life in San Pedro, California, go figure.:D;)
 
we aren't at the bottom yet. Why? because the builders can't seem to stop building houses. The houses that they are building have to be sold more and more cheaply which causes everyones home values to continue going down.

The gas prices I see as a good thing. Painful, yes, but good. High gas prices is the only way that we will look for 1)more efficient cars immediately and 2) alternatives to oil for energy.

It's easy to support the right thing when you aren't directly effected by the negatives, it's harder but no less important to support it when you are effected by the negatives.
 
Originally posted by Russianwolf


The gas prices I see as a good thing. Painful, yes, but good. High gas prices is the only way that we will look for 1)more efficient cars immediately and 2) alternatives to oil for energy.

It's easy to support the right thing when you aren't directly effected by the negatives, it's harder but no less important to support it when you are effected by the negatives.
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"Necessity is the mother of all inventions"
 
Originally posted by Texatdurango

Originally posted by rherrell

NOT THE PRICE OF OIL OR GAS? Trucks move everything in this country and the price they pay for fuel is DIRECTLY tied to how much things cost. I think most economists WOULD agree with that.
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Rick, I didn't say the price of oil and gas wasn't a problem. How much things cost and the poor economic shape we are in I believe are two separate issues. I just don't believe it's the CAUSE of the economic mess we are in right now.

People walking away from homes they choose not to keep paying for because their “investment†turned sour and lenders claiming horrendous losses on bad home loans wanting to be bailed out by the government for their bad choices caused by their own greed is what is causing a lot of trickle down problems.

Empty houses in record numbers all across the country, did we over build, over sell, over extend, over invest, probably a little of each. Are the mortgage holders wanting to sell their homes for realistic prices… no, they would rather be bailed out by the government for their losses with your tax dollars. Until this stalemate ends, we will not move out of this mess.

But this is just my opinion!
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George, I agree that the housing issue is a serious one. But it isn't the biggest player in our economic woes. But then neither are the rising gas prices. There are many factors, of course, but right now the one that hits we the consumer the hardest (at least for my house) is fuel. We have kids and grandkids in TX and NC and we travel frequently b/c we like to keep up with them. The phone and email is nice, but you can't put your arms around a telephone. The higher gas prices means that we will have to change our life style and give up things we enjoy. Seeing our kids is unfortunately one of them. And we do we have to make this sacrifice? So someone can line their pockets. We work ourselves to death so that we "might" be able to retire w/o worries. Now this too is in jeopardy, and I'm not happy about it. Why should we have to pay for somoeone else's yacht, mansion, or swimming pool?

As for the housing industry, interest was low and folks began to discover that they could get a house for less than what rent was costing them. But like others of late, mortgage companies saw $$$ and often went to less than admirable lengths to get families into a home. Now they are paying the consequences. Builders aren't much different and went on a building spree that hasn't stopped yet. Why? Because you can get into a new home less expensively than a used one because of the financing available.

What's the solution? IJMO, but I think the only thing that will shake the greed out of big business is failure. And that means depression, if not serious recession. But we've done it to ourselves. We've abandoned our foundation and support structure and He rewards accordingly.;)
 
I have traveled the world and have seen some things that would make you sick if you saw it, I know that because it made me sick and that's not easy. I have been in places where people have to dig if you want water, where people have to worry about whether they will have a meal today or tomorrow or the next day. I have seen some inhumane situations that were brought on by nature and by people. I have had the option to live anywhere in the world that I chose, but I made the decision to live here, because this is where I feel it is the best of conditions and the best place to survive. We may have to pay more for gas now, and a whole lot of other prices are going to go up as well, but this is where I still choose to live. If you think this is bad, maybe you have never really seen how bad things can be. Leno, O'brian, whoever, it doesn't really matter in the big picture, we can either sit and complain about things, or we can still do something about it. The big problem is that most people would choose to just complain about it because it is easier and they don't even have to get up from in front of their TV. Some are survivors and some aren't, you have to choose which one you are.
 
Sorry for the long post...

As mentioned earlier, the Futures or Commodities market is the biggest influence on the price of oil and gas. Remove them from the commodities exchange and prides would not be as volatile.

(Quoted)

The process of trading commodities is also known as futures trading. Unlike other kinds of investments, such as stocks and bonds, when you trade futures, you do not actually buy anything or own anything. You are speculating on the future direction of the price in the commodity you are trading. This is like a bet on future price direction. The terms "buy" and "sell" merely indicate the direction you expect future prices will take.

If, for instance, you were speculating in corn (substitute oil and gasoline for corn), you would buy a futures contract if you thought the price would be going up in the future. You would sell a futures contract if you thought the price would go down. For every trade, there is always a buyer and a seller. Neither person has to own any corn to participate. He must only deposit sufficient capital with a brokerage firm to insure that he will be able to pay the losses if his trades lose money.

In addition to speculators (traders), both the commodity's commercial producers and commercial consumers also participate. The principal economic purpose of the futures markets is for these commercial participants to eliminate their risk</u> from changing prices.

On one side of a transaction may be a producer like a farmer (oil importer or refiner). He has a field full of corn(oil and gasoline) growing (stored) on his farm (refinery). It won't be ready for harvest for another three months. If he is worried about the price going down during that time, he can sell futures contracts equivalent to the size of his crop (supply) and deliver his corn to fulfill his obligation under the contract. Regardless of how the price of corn changes in the three months until his crop will be ready for delivery, he is guaranteed to be paid the current price.

On the other side of the transaction might be a producer such as a cereal manufacturer (refiner or retail supplier) who needs to buy lots of corn (oil or gasoline). The manufacturer, such as Kellogg (Exxon), may be concerned that in the next three months the price of corn will go up, and it will have to pay more than the current price</u>. To protect against this, Kellogg (Exxon) can buy futures contracts at the current price. In three months Kellogg can fulfill its obligation under the contracts by taking delivery of the corn. This guarantees that regardless of how the price moves in the next three months, Kellogg (Exxon) will pay no more than the current price for its corn.

In addition to agricultural commodities, there are futures for financial instruments and intangibles such as currencies, bonds and stock market indexes. Each futures market has producers and consumers who need to hedge their risk from future price changes. The speculators, who do not actually deal in the physical commodities, are there to provide liquidity (money). This maintains an orderly market where price changes from one trade to the next are small.

Rather than taking delivery or making delivery, the speculator merely offsets his position at some time before the date set for future delivery. If price has moved in the right direction, he will profit. If not, he will lose.

(End quote)

So, you see it is the buyers and resellers of petroleum based products that use the commodity market to guarantee that they will never lose money, that are making you pay more at the pump.

Then factor in all the "excuses" that the refineries use to slow or shut down production (so they can artificially manipulate supply against demand) and you can see why they score big on the commodities exchange. That is why Exxon, Shell, etc., continue to post record profits EVERY QUARTER! The only losers are the traders that guess wrong on the commodities exchange and the consumers at the pump.

Consumer demand is not the true reason like they want you to believe. The demographics of America show that the population segment called baby boomers, does not drive as much as they did pre-retirement. Combined with their parents and grandparents, we represent the vast majority of our population. So if demand is not keeping pace, the only way to keep prices growing is to artificially shorten the supply, thus driving the price of oil and gasoline up.

This will continue until they feel that the consumer has reached an economic "pain threshold" (my guess is that $4.50 - $5.00/gallon is their target) and then price increases will slow and then retreat to a "lower" (yet substantially higher price) of maybe $3.75 - $4.00/gallon. Once we are comfortable with the new order, they will start the process all over again.
 
I'd still take this economy over the recession of the 70's. Double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment. I also don't see long lines at the gas pump.
 
I am a migrant...came from a place where police officers and military are shot on the streets while; working, on their way to work, with their family, etc. Where some people don't know where to get their next meal. Where some dig through trash looking for things to re-cycle and sell all their life. Where you see dead bodies in the news everyday. Where people sell a kidney to buy food. Where people live in a shack made of cartons or none at all, etc. One thing I know, they are like that not because of laziness but because they don't have a choice. The government failed them (mostly due to corruption).

I too chose to live here and I am blessed to have that opportunity to escape the insanity. I've posted before that most Americans don't know or appreciate how good they have it and probably cannot live the way 3rd world people does. That said, I don't want...no...I refuse to compare USA to any third world country because it doesn't have to be.

It is not whining when you compare how it is vs how it could be because we really can do much better.

As posted above...maybe we need this wake-up call.
 
Originally posted by DCBluesman

Losing Leno for O'Brien is not nearly the scale of tragedy as when we lost Carson for Leno.
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Losing Carson to anybody is bad enough. I wonder why he became such a recluse after retiring?

Boy I wish Chris Farley was still around, let him take over the show.
 
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